Should Old Financial Predictions Be Forgot?
Submitted by MIRUS Financial Partners on December 9th, 2015We all know the old saying: Time in the market, not market timing.
But as the year comes to an end, and the New Year financial predictions come rolling in, it’s a good time to remind you; nobody can predict the sometimes irrational financial markets. Stay the course.
If you start to make too much of the annual predictions parade in the financial press, it might help to take a look back at last year's predictions.
According to forecasters, interest rate hikes were overdue and coming as early as mid-year, and some were calling for advances in global markets. Meanwhile the year was full of surprises and shocks, ups and downs. It's not that financial guidance isn't helpful, just that it should be accepted as a measure of context and awareness, not an investment manual for the next 12 months.
The 2015 Predictions:
- Bloomberg weighed in with a call for sluggish growth with a world economy moving "slower than it once was, but moving forward." The prediction put some weight on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike (we were still waiting for it heading into December), and a global market that was going to be better than it was in 2014.
- BNY Mellon saw 3% growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), no China meltdown, and better global growth.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected lower commodity prices and increasing volatility. And Transamerica's market outlook foresaw growth in some stocks, but not the market as a whole, with the potential for 3% GDP growth.
- Never mind the "bold" predictions such as a sharp rebound in oil prices (didn't happen); oil below $25 a barrel, plus a minimum wage hike (neither happened); or the S&P 500 blowing past 2,300 (nope).
What Did Happen?
Some things came true, some didn't.
- Across the U.S. unemployment fell to 5%, but it didn't spark wage increases or inflation. In fact there was so little evidence of inflation that the Social Security Administration was unable to give recipients a cost of living increase.
- Oil prices drifted around, but nothing dramatic. No return to 2014 highs, but no cratering into free-gasoline-for-all status.
- Similarly nothing dramatic in the Eurozone economy. Just "meh." And no rocket ride or crash and burn in the Asian economy, just continued suspicion of China's official numbers and the never-ending fretting over Japan's.
- A wobbly domestic GDP was down a hair in the first quarter, up in the second, and up a bit in the third.
And what no one saw coming: No matter what pundits and prognosticators tell investors is coming, there were some things nobody could predict. Like the Iowa Hawkeyes.
- The rise in global terror attacks: mass killings in Paris (twice); a Russian jetliner downed; and bombings and bloodshed in Beirut; Ankara, Turkey; and across Africa.
- Volkswagen caught in a massive emissions cheating scandal.
- The Syrian/European migrant crisis.
- A slew of twists in the U.S. presidential race.
- A major shakeup in Social Security benefits, ending the "file and suspend" strategy.
Bottom line, when you are looking to blow up a tried-and-true, patient investment strategy because of "what's going to happen in 2016," remind yourself that nobody really knows. Focus on the long term. Be patient with the process. And beware of those who say they know exactly what's going to happen.
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Mark A. Vergenes is President of MIRUS Financial Partners, 110 E. King St., Lancaster; 717-509-4521 or mark@mirusfinancialpartners.com Investment Advisor Representative offering securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC., member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. MIRUS Financial Partners nor Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. give tax or legal advice.